Publications
Preference Discovery and Experimentation
I provide axiomatic foundations for a model of taste uncertainty with endogenous learning through consumption. In this setting, uncertainty is over an unobservable, subjective state space. Preference over lottery-menu pairs is sufficient to identify the state space and the learning process. In this model, the agent is viewed as if he learns the utility of an object upon its consumption. This information is used to improve choice from the follow-on menu. This implies a trade-off between consumption value and information leading to experimentation. I provide a behavioral definition of experimentation. While the literature focuses on identifying subjective states through a demand for flexibility, I show that experimentation also (partially) identifies taste uncertainty.
[PDF] Theoretical Economics, 12 (3), (2017), 1307–1348
A Network of Thrones: Kinship and Conflict in Europe, 1495-1918 (Joint with Seth Benzell) -
We construct a database linking European royal kinship networks, monarchies, and wars to study the effect of family ties on conflict. To establish causality, we exploit decreases in connection caused by apolitical deaths of network important individuals. These deaths are associated with substantial increases in the frequency and duration of war. We provide evidence that these deaths affect conflict only through changing the kinship network. Over our period of interest, the percentage of European monarchs with kinship ties increased threefold. Together, these findings help explain the well-documented decrease in European war frequency. [PDF ; Stata Data] American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (Forthcoming)
I provide axiomatic foundations for a model of taste uncertainty with endogenous learning through consumption. In this setting, uncertainty is over an unobservable, subjective state space. Preference over lottery-menu pairs is sufficient to identify the state space and the learning process. In this model, the agent is viewed as if he learns the utility of an object upon its consumption. This information is used to improve choice from the follow-on menu. This implies a trade-off between consumption value and information leading to experimentation. I provide a behavioral definition of experimentation. While the literature focuses on identifying subjective states through a demand for flexibility, I show that experimentation also (partially) identifies taste uncertainty.
[PDF] Theoretical Economics, 12 (3), (2017), 1307–1348
A Network of Thrones: Kinship and Conflict in Europe, 1495-1918 (Joint with Seth Benzell) -
We construct a database linking European royal kinship networks, monarchies, and wars to study the effect of family ties on conflict. To establish causality, we exploit decreases in connection caused by apolitical deaths of network important individuals. These deaths are associated with substantial increases in the frequency and duration of war. We provide evidence that these deaths affect conflict only through changing the kinship network. Over our period of interest, the percentage of European monarchs with kinship ties increased threefold. Together, these findings help explain the well-documented decrease in European war frequency. [PDF ; Stata Data] American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (Forthcoming)
Working Papers
On the Determinants of Conflict: Inherited Risk Attitudes of Rulers
I study the relationship between individual monarchs' risk preferences and interstate war in Europe from 1495 to 1918. Specifically, genealogical data is combined with the Global Preferences Survey to measure the inherited risk attitude of individual monarchs. Leveraging recent evidence supporting the inter-generational transmission of risk preferences, this measure proxies a ruler's risk attitude accounting for ruler-specific ancestry. For a given country pair, the data suggest that war frequency increases with rulers' risk tolerance. Interestingly, this effect appears to operate exclusively through the more risk tolerant ruler in a given pair. In a simple model, I show that this asymmetry is predicted when commitment power is limited. In contrast, bargaining failure models of conflict relying on incomplete information predict both rulers' risk preferences should affect war frequency. [PDF]
(Current Version: November 2019)
Association-Based Expected Utility
The marketing and psychology literatures have developed a robust finding that the co-presentation of products causes consumers to associate them. Associated products are evaluated more similarly. Supposing that agents behave according to this evidence, I axiomatically derive a tractable utility model of this association effect. In an application, I study a two product monopolist that can strategically choose whether or not to offer his products under the same brand. I demonstrate that psychological association can provide strict incentives for either brand extension or brand differentiation depending on the joint distribution of product valuations in the market. Appropriate branding strategies allow firms to extract more surplus from consumers when psychological association is present. [PDF]
I study the relationship between individual monarchs' risk preferences and interstate war in Europe from 1495 to 1918. Specifically, genealogical data is combined with the Global Preferences Survey to measure the inherited risk attitude of individual monarchs. Leveraging recent evidence supporting the inter-generational transmission of risk preferences, this measure proxies a ruler's risk attitude accounting for ruler-specific ancestry. For a given country pair, the data suggest that war frequency increases with rulers' risk tolerance. Interestingly, this effect appears to operate exclusively through the more risk tolerant ruler in a given pair. In a simple model, I show that this asymmetry is predicted when commitment power is limited. In contrast, bargaining failure models of conflict relying on incomplete information predict both rulers' risk preferences should affect war frequency. [PDF]
(Current Version: November 2019)
Association-Based Expected Utility
The marketing and psychology literatures have developed a robust finding that the co-presentation of products causes consumers to associate them. Associated products are evaluated more similarly. Supposing that agents behave according to this evidence, I axiomatically derive a tractable utility model of this association effect. In an application, I study a two product monopolist that can strategically choose whether or not to offer his products under the same brand. I demonstrate that psychological association can provide strict incentives for either brand extension or brand differentiation depending on the joint distribution of product valuations in the market. Appropriate branding strategies allow firms to extract more surplus from consumers when psychological association is present. [PDF]